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Calculated Risk

Q3 GDP Forecasts: Around 4.5%

GDP forecasts had been downgraded sharply for Q3 due to COVID, but now seem to have stabilized. 

Here is a table of some of the forecasts over the last two months.

 MerrillGoldmanGDPNow
7/30/217.0%9.0%6.1%
8/20/214.5%5.5%6.1%
9/10/214.5%3.5%3.7%
9/17/214.5%4.5%3.6%

From BofA Merrill Lynch:
We continue to track 4.5% qoq saar for 3Q GDP following the retail sales data as our forecast was far above consensus. [Sept 17 estimate]
emphasis added
From Goldman Sachs:
Following the stronger-than-expected retail sales report, we boosted our Q3 GDP tracking estimate by 1pp at +4.5% (qoq ar). We are also lowering our 2021Q4 and 2022Q2 GDP forecasts by 0.5pp to reflect a smaller rebound from 2021Q3. [Sept 16 estimate]
And from the Altanta Fed: GDPNow
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2021 is 3.6 percent on September 16, down from 3.7 percent on September 10 after rounding. [Sept 16 estimate]

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