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Calculated Risk

Schedule for Week of March 15, 2020

The key reports this week are February Retail Sales, Housing Starts and Existing Home sales.

For manufacturing, the February Industrial Production report and the March NY and Philly Fed manufacturing surveys will be released.

The FOMC meets this week, and is expected to reduce the federal funds rate to a target range of 0 to 1/4 percent (100 bps reduction).

----- Monday, Mar 16th -----

8:30 AM: The New York Fed Empire State manufacturing survey for March. The consensus is for a reading of 4.4, down from 12.9.

10:00 AM: State Employment and Unemployment (Monthly) for January 2020

----- Tuesday, Mar 17th -----

8:30 AM: Retail sales for February is scheduled to be released.  The consensus is for a 0.2% increase in retail sales.

This graph shows the year-over-year change in retail sales and food service (ex-gasoline) since 1993. Retail and Food service sales, ex-gasoline, increased by 3.9% on a YoY basis in January.

9:15 AM: The Fed will release Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization for February.

This graph shows industrial production since 1967.

The consensus is for a 0.4% increase in Industrial Production, and for Capacity Utilization to increase to 77.0%.

10:00 AM: The March NAHB homebuilder survey. The consensus is for a reading of  74, unchanged from 74.  Any number above 50 indicates that more builders view sales conditions as good than poor.

10:00 AM ET: Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey for January from the BLS.

This graph shows job openings (yellow line), hires (purple), Layoff, Discharges and other (red column), and Quits (light blue column) from the JOLTS.

Jobs openings decreased in December to 6.423 million from 6.787 million in November.

----- Wednesday, Mar 18th -----

7:00 AM ET: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.

8:30 AM: Housing Starts for February.

This graph shows single and total housing starts since 1968.

The consensus is for 1.500 million SAAR, down from 1.567 million SAAR.

During the day: The AIA's Architecture Billings Index for February (a leading indicator for commercial real estate).

2:00 PM: FOMC Meeting Announcement. The Fed is expect to reduce the Fed Funds rate 100bps.

2:00 PM: FOMC Forecasts This will include the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) participants' projections of the appropriate target federal funds rate along with the quarterly economic projections.

2:30 PM: Fed Chair Jerome Powell holds a press briefing following the FOMC announcement.

----- Thursday, Mar 19th -----

8:30 AM: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for 218 thousand initial claims, up from 211 thousand the previous week.

8:30 AM: the Philly Fed manufacturing survey for March. The consensus is for a reading of 10.0, down from 36.7.

----- Friday, Mar 20th -----

10:00 AM: Existing Home Sales for February from the National Association of Realtors (NAR). The consensus is for 5.50 million SAAR, up from 5.46 million.

The graph shows existing home sales from 1994 through the report last month.

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