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Calculated Risk

NAHB: Builder Confidence Increased to 76 in September

The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) reported the housing market index (HMI) was at 76, up from 75 in August. Any number above 50 indicates that more builders view sales conditions as good than poor.

From the NAHB: Builder Confidence Steadies as Material and Labor Challenges Persist
Builder confidence inched up in September on lower lumber prices and strong housing demand, even as the housing sector continues to grapple with building material supply chain issues and labor challenges. Ending a three-month decline, builder sentiment in the market for newly built single-family homes edged up one point to 76 in September, according to the NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI) released today.

“Builder sentiment has been gradually cooling since the HMI hit an all-time high reading of 90 last November,” said NAHB Chairman Chuck Fowke. “The September data show stability as some building material cost challenges ease, particularly for softwood lumber. However, delivery times remain extended and the chronic construction labor shortage is expected to persist as the overall labor market recovers.”

“The single-family building market has moved off the unsustainably hot pace of construction of last fall and has reached a still hot but more stable level of activity, as reflected in the September HMI,” said NAHB Chief Economist Robert Dietz. “While building material challenges persist, the rate of cost growth has eased for some products, but the job openings rate in construction is trending higher.”
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The HMI index gauging current sales conditions rose one point to 82, the component measuring traffic of prospective buyers posted a two-point gain to 61 and the gauge charting sales expectations in the next six months held steady at 81.

Looking at the three-month moving averages for regional HMI scores, the Northeast fell two points to 72, the South dropped two points to 80 and the West registered a two-point decline to 83. The Midwest remained unchanged at 68.
Click on graph for larger image.

This graph show the NAHB index since Jan 1985.

This was above the consensus forecast, and a solid reading.

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